This nineteenth and final monthly report will analyse the most important events and trends in Jihadi-terrorist social media reporting from the Sahel in the month of June 2024. Although the number of reported incidents by al-Qaeda and Islamic State related groups operating in the area dropped slightly, it remains significantly high. One hundred and twenty three statements were published, mostly about attacks, but the propaganda output regarding Da’wah (proselitization)—and other campaigns to either coerce or entice public support—by both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State is increasing. This is indicative of the trend that Jihadi terrorist groups in the Sahel are

The month of May saw a significant increase in social media output from both the Islamic State as well as JNIM--as was expected given the continuous rise of online activities of both groups in recent months. The number of statements published during the month of May reached their highest point since reporting began in December 2022. 151 statements were released by the Islamic State’s branches and JNIM, al-Qaeda’s representative in the Sahel.

ISWAP in particular increased its online activities and in May had the largest output of all three terror groups. 67 statements were published throughout the month of

Despite the slight drop in the number of claims in February and March, the number of incidents claimed by Jihadi-terrorist groups in the Sahel has risen again to the record high of 129, first reached in January 2024. This confirms the overall trend first detected in June 2023. At that point the algorithms predicted the number of claims would easily surpass 100 per month, something we have witnessed in three of the four past months. Judging the number of claims and the overall impact of the claimed attacks by JNIM and both Islamic State branches, it is obvious that the

Since the record high of 129 claims per month in January 2024, the number of claims and statements has dropped, slightly. In March, a combined 95 claims were published by Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM) and both Islamic State branches active in the Sahel. Nonetheless, the trend points toward a likely increase again in the months to come.

For the first time since reporting started in December 2022, the claims of al-Qaeda’s branch in the Sahel, Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM), are more than double the number of claims by both Islamic State branches. Since October 2023, there has been a significant rise in JNIM’s activity—though al-Qaeda’s attacks never surpassed 60 per month, the number reached in January 2024. Now, in February, it made no less than 85 claims and statements.

In June 2023, the author predicted that the number of attacks claimed by the three main terrorist networks in the Sahel could reach over 100 per month near the end of the year, but the statistics at that point did not support such a scenario. Even by mid-July 2023, over 100 claims per month seemed highly unlikely. However, claimed events surged from 96 in December 2023 to 129 in January 2024. An important factor explaining this sudden increase in claimed attacks was the Islamic State’s campaign in reaction to the war in Gaza, which the group named “Kill Them Wherever You Find Them”—as always in ISIS central propaganda a subtle play on the Qur’an, in this case Sura an-Nisa 4:91. An additional factor was the gradually increasing propaganda output by az-Zallaqa Media, al-Qaeda’s media outlet in the Sahel. ISGS, as usual and as it has done for the past several months, continued underreporting.

For the first time since CEP reporting began in December 2022, the number of monthly attacks claimed by al-Qaida and ISIS affiliates in West Africa exceeded 90. In December 2023, the claimed number of attacks averaged  three per day, just short of 100. This supports earlier CEP predictions that the number of claimed attacks would continue to increase in 2024. At the beginning of CEP’s reporting, regional terror groups  claimed on average 38 attacks monthly. This increased steeply during 2023. A first peak was reached during the month of Ramadan 2023, which coincided with April 2023 with a total of 68 claimed attacks. After this peak the numbers somewhat stabilised again on a higher level. However, since October 2023, the monthly level of claimed terrorist violence by al-Qaida and ISIS affiliates in the region has continued to reach unprecedented levels. With 96 claimed attacks in December 2023, the year-by-year increase stands at 252.63 percent.

The twelfth monthly report monitoring the online propaganda activities of al-Qaeda and Islamic State branches throughout the Sahel will focus on the output of these groups in November 2023. Last month again witnessed over 80 claimed attacks. In November, ISWAP claimed a significant number of attacks. These 45 claimed attacks were the second highest number since monitoring began in December 2022. Only in April 2023, with 46 claims, did the group boast about more operations online. This is noteworthy because in April 2023 the annual Ramadan terror campaign was in full swing, which always sees the highest number of terror activities in the region.

The eleventh monthly report monitoring the activities of al-Qaeda and Islamic State branches throughout the Sahel will focus on the propaganda output of these groups in October 2023.

This tenth monthly report monitoring activities of al-Qaeda and Islamic State branches throughout the Sahel will focus on the propaganda output of these groups in September 2023.