Eye on Extremism: December 4, 2024

Reuters: Israel Threatens To Expand War If Hezbollah Truce Collapses

“Israel threatened on Tuesday to return to war in Lebanon if its truce with Hezbollah collapses, and said this time its attacks would go deeper and target the Lebanese state itself, after the deadliest day since the ceasefire was agreed last week. In its strongest threat since the truce was agreed to end 14 months of war with Hezbollah, Israel said it would hold Lebanon responsible for failing to disarm militants who violate the ceasefire. "If we return to war we will act strongly, we will go deeper, and the most important thing they need to know: that there will be no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon," Defence Minister Israel Katz said. "If until now we separated the state of Lebanon from Hezbollah... it will no longer be [like this]," he said during a visit to the northern border area.”

The New York Times: Why Israel And Hezbollah Are Still Firing Amid A Cease-Fire

“A deal to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon went into effect last Wednesday, but already there have been multiple claims of cease-fire violations by either side. They have continued to fire on each other, though at a far less intense pace, raising questions about the durability of the truce. No one is saying the deal has collapsed. “I’ve been around Lebanon cease-fire agreements for decades, and there was no cease-fire agreement that wasn’t initially broken,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator. The real question, he suggested, is whether the parties have the will to absorb violations and exercise restraint while they get through the initial 60-day phase.”

CEP Mentions

The Arab Weekly: Experts Doubt Qaeda-Linked Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham Has Fundamentally Changed

“... Hans-Jakob Schindler, the director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP), said this was justified. “If you have to ask for permission before you break ties with al-Qaeda, from the leadership of al-Qaeda, the sincerity of the ideological reorientation is in question,” he said. He pointed to the case of a young Austrian man who Munich police shot dead in September after he opened fire at the Israeli consulate in the German city. Investigators last year found three videos he had recorded in 2021, showing scenes from a computer game “with Islamist content”, according to Austrian prosecutors. In one of them, the suspect had used an avatar with a flag of the “al-Nusra Front”, the name of HTS before it severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016.”

Barron’s: What We Know About The North Syria Rebel Offensive

“Islamist-led rebels are pressing a major offensive in northern Syria in which they seized the second city Aleppo from the government for the first time since civil war erupted in 2011… Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the think tank the Counter Extremism Project (CEP), said now was the ideal time for the rebels to attack. "The Assad regime is truly not very strong," he told AFP. Its major backers, Russia and Iran along with Lebanon's Hezbollah, "all have other issues to deal with right now", he added. Assad has long counted on military, economic and diplomatic support from Tehran and Moscow, which is tied up with its conflict in Ukraine, while Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah has taken a beating in its recent war with Israel.”

Le Progres: Capture Of Aleppo, Sending Of Iranian Troops... We Summarize The Current Military Escalation

“Rebel groups led by radical Islamists Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are continuing their military escalation in northern Syria, after capturing Aleppo, the country's second city, which has escaped full regime control for the first time since 2011. On Tuesday, the rebels moved closer to Hama, the country's fourth city, which regime forces are trying to block access to, supported by Russian aircraft… On Saturday, President Bashar al-Assad vowed to "defeat" the "terrorists" with "the help of his allies." But what if the situation had changed? Moscow is absorbed by the war in Ukraine and Tehran by an explosive regional situation that has weakened its allies, first and foremost Hezbollah in Lebanon, after two months of war with Israel. The rebels have chosen the "ideal" moment to launch their offensive, believes Hans-Jakob Schindler, of the think tank Counter-Extremism Project (CEP), as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah "have other problems to solve at the moment."”

United States

BBC: Trump Appears To Threaten Hamas With ‘All Hell To Pay’ Over Hostages

“US President-elect Donald Trump has issued an apparent warning to Hamas, threatening "all hell to pay" if hostages held in Gaza are not released by the time he returns to the White House on 20 January. Dozens of people taken during the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack remain unaccounted for. On Monday, the Israeli military said an Israeli-American soldier who it believed to be a captive had in fact been killed last October. Without mentioning Hamas by name, Trump posted online the same day: "Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America." Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump for his "strong statement".”

Syria

The Washington Examiner: New Jihadist Offensive In Syria Leaves US With No Good Options, Experts Say

“The surprise offensive by Jihadist-led rebels into Aleppo reignited the Syrian civil war after four years of relative quiet and put the United States in an unenviable position. Hayat Tahrir al Sham, recognized as a terrorist group by the United States, and allied militias have continued their offensive, battling the Syrian Arab Army outside Hama. Russia, Iran, and Iran’s proxy militias have rushed to shore up Syrian President Bashar al Assad. The U.S., meanwhile, appears to have been caught flat-footed, distancing itself from the offensive, publicly denouncing both sides, and calling for “de-escalation.” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that HTS is “a terrorist organization designated by the United States. So, we have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization.””

Reuters: Russia Strongly Backs Syrian Leadership, Says Rebels Are Getting Support From Outside

“Russia said on Wednesday that it strongly backs the actions of the Syrian leadership to counter an offensive by what it said were terrorist groups receiving support, including drones and training, from outside the country. "We strongly condemn this attack ... There is no doubt that they would not have dared to commit such an audacious act without the instigation and comprehensive support of external forces that seek to provoke a new round of armed confrontation in Syria, unfurl a the spiral of violence," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters. Russia is a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and has provided him with military support since 2015 in the country's civil war. "We express solidarity with the leadership of Syria," Zakharova said. "We strongly support the efforts of the Syrian authorities to counter terrorist groups and restore constitutional order."”

Afghanistan

The Independent: Taliban Bans Women From Training As Midwives

“Women in Afghanistan have been banned from training to become midwives in the latest crackdown unveiled by the Taliban. Trainee midwifery students, who have been ordered to no longer attend classes, urged Taliban leaders to allow them to continue studying. A director at leading global charity Human Rights Watch said the measures would lead to women and girls dying due to struggling to receive healthcare during childbirth. Sources close to the Taliban’s Ministry of Public Health told BBC Radio 4’s World at One they have received orders to shut medical institutions to female students until further notice. Several midwifery institutions in different provinces in Afghanistan confirmed the ban is in place to the news outlet.”

Lebanon

Associated Press: An Israeli Strike Kills A Person In Lebanon, Further Shaking The Tenuous Ceasefire

“Israeli forces carried out several new drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday, including a deadly strike that the Health Ministry and state media said killed one person, further shaking a tenuous ceasefire meant to end more than a year of fighting with Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep striking “with an iron fist” against perceived Hezbollah violations of the truce. His defense minister warned that if the ceasefire collapses, Israel will target not just Hezbollah but the Lebanese state — an expansion of Israel’s campaign. Israel also carried out an airstrike in Syria, saying it killed a senior member of Hezbollah responsible for coordinating with Syria’s army on rearming and resupplying the Lebanese militant group.”

Reuters: Lebanese Refugees Return Home From Iraq As Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds

“Lebanese families displaced in Iraq by the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah have begun returning to their homes in southern Lebanon following a recently brokered ceasefire. The cessation of hostilities has allowed many to make the journey back, despite widespread destruction. "After two months, we are returning to our homeland. We will return even if we find our homes destroyed; we will sit on the ground," said Ali Abdulla, a southern Lebanon resident, waiting along with dozens of others at Najaf airport in Iraq to fly back to Beirut with his family. More than 20,000 Lebanese have sought refuge in Iraq since the outbreak of the war, according to official figures seen by Reuters. "Returning home was faster than we expected. A ceasefire has been achieved.”

Middle East

Associated Press: Middle East Latest: Israeli Strikes On Gaza Hospital Wound 3, Netanyahu Vows ‘Iron Fist’ In Lebanon

“Israeli drone strikes hit Kamal Adwan Hospital on Tuesday, wounding three medical staff at one of the few hospitals still partially operating in the northernmost part of Gaza, the facility’s director said. Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya said the drones were dropping bombs, spraying shrapnel at the hospital. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. In Lebanon, a tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has held despite Israeli forces carrying out several new drone and artillery strikes on Tuesday, killing a shepherd in the country’s south. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep striking “with an iron fist” against perceived Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire. Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones and missiles into Israel last year in solidarity with Hamas militants who are fighting in the Gaza Strip.”

Africa

Associated Press: Extremist Rebels Linked To IS Kill At Least 9 And Kidnap 3 In Eastern Congo

“Extremist rebels linked to the Islamic State group killed at least 9 people, including an 8-month-old baby and a 14-year-old girl in eastern Congo and kidnapped several others, authorities said on Wednesday. Rebels with the Allied Democratic Forces attacked civilians in Tenambo village in the North Kivu province on Tuesday evening, Colonel Mak Hazukay, spokesperson for the Congolese army said in a statement, calling on residents to remain vigilant and temporarily avoid isolated places. The militants also set fire to houses in the village and kidnapped three people, the deputy mayor of Oicha, Jean De Die Kambale Kibwana, told local media. Eastern Congo has struggled with armed violence for decades as more than 120 groups fight for power, land and valuable mineral resources, while others try to defend their communities. Some armed groups have been accused of mass killings.”

Daily Dose

Extremists: Their Words. Their Actions.

Fact:

On October 7, 2023, Hamas invaded southern Israel where, in the space of eight hours, hundreds of armed terrorists perpetrated mass crimes of brutality, rape, and torture against men, women and children. In the biggest attack on Jewish life in a single day since the Holocaust, 1,200 were killed, and 251 were taken hostage into Gaza—where 101 remain. One year on, antisemitic incidents have increased by record numbers. 

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