CEP Research Analyst Gregory Water writes: "Years of simmering tensions between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and local populations in northeast Syria have exploded this week into still-expanding battles across much of Deir ez-Zor. The current violence was triggered by the SDF’s Aug. 27 arrest of Ahmed al-Khubayl (“Abu Khawla”), the emir of the Bakir tribe and commander of the SDF’s Deir ez-Zor Military Council. Five days later the chaos shows no sign of subsiding — in fact it appears to be spreading as more towns and clans take up arms against the SDF. The roots of this crisis are multilayered and complex, reaching back years."

"Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director of the Counter Extremism Project and former coordinator of a terror monitoring team in the UN Security Council, told The Media Line that Syria no longer operates as IS’s center of gravity as it once did. He said that the recent attack in Syria might be a way for the group to 'show [its] relevance' and improve its public image."

"Our team spoke to terrorism expert Gregory Waters, who documents the Islamic State group’s activities for the Counter Extremism Project. Our interview with him has been transcribed below and lightly edited for clarity and length."

"In central and southern Syria the group has expanded its reach, according to the Counter Extremism Project. In regime-held areas the group had its deadliest month in three years, launching 38 attacks in Deir Ezzor, Homs, Hama and Raqqa. In April, at least 71 civilians were killed by ISIS and another seven were kidnapped."

CEP Research Analyst Gregory Waters interviewed: "This attack occurred in an area outside Sukhnah that has, according to security forces, long been controlled by ISIS, for many years. The fact that they were in an area controlled by ISIS supports the idea that it was ISIS that was behind the attack...  

Since the beginning of 2019, there's been over 900 confirmed ISIS attacks in central Syria. We are used to seeing ISIS as this group that has a very flashy media, that claims every single thing it does. But it's no longer holding territory...  

In 2020, we saw a huge uptick in ISIS attacks. And at this time, the ISIS cells were more concentrated in the really remote central core of the desert area. Now it's running an insurgency using small groups of well-armed militants driving around in motorcycles or pickup trucks with machine guns. They're doing hit and run attacks all the time, all over the place...

The frequency of attacks increases, the severity of the attacks increases. And finally there's this really big pushback from the regime, Russia, and Iran...

You also have the Iranians and Iranian-backed militias, which includes both Syrian militias, and Afghanistan and Pakistani foreign fighters, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iraqi groups. So all of these groups are here, they're all spread together, they work together at times, they work separately at times, but they're spread throughout central Syria...

Sheep have been a really key financing opportunity for ISIS for several years now. Sometimes they kill the shepherds. Sometimes, they just steal the sheep. Then they take them and they sell them either on the black market or at regular sheep markets...

ISIS is most effective when no one can see its movements, of course, when no one can find its camps, its hideouts and caches. All of that's in danger when you have civilians wandering into these really remote areas. So what does the group do? They attack civilians...

Kidnappings often end with the bodies being found executed somewhere else. Executed is the word I use, because almost without fail the bodies are found lined up with bullet wounds to the head."             

"In this episode of 'The Hunt with WTOP national security correspondent J.J. Green,' Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director of the Counter Extremism Project, said it’s not enough to say he’s dead. You need to present evidence."