CEP Analyst Greg Waters writes: "Syria’s first post-Assad protests broke out on Dec. 25 after a video claiming to show the destruction of an Alawite shrine spread rapidly across Facebook. The video was quickly debunked as several weeks old, the shrine only partially damaged, and the damage occurring during the capture of Aleppo city rather than in an act of sectarian vandalism. But those first hours were enough to stir up the widespread fears lingering just below the surface among Syria’s Alawite minority, bringing many Alawites (as well as Sunnis) to the streets to denounce sectarianism. Rumors of apparently sectarian-motivated violations by Syria’s new security forces against minorities have been widespread since Dec. 9, the day after the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad — rumors fueled by both pro-Assad fake news campaigns and the very real violations that had occurred within these communities. Many of these rumors are impossible to verify, while others are quickly disproven by fact-checking organizations like Verify-Sy. But the new government’s apparent use of extra-judicial executions of local ex-regime criminals has only cemented fears that innocent civilians are being targeted purely over their religion, while the lack of transparency has enabled others to impersonate security forces and carry out their own crimes."

“... The TIP is "still officially part of the global al-Qaida network and, unlike HTS, has never distanced itself from al-Qaida," explains terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler of the Counter Extremism Project. "The fact that HTS accepts the TIP in its coalition is one of the main arguments that call into question the ideological orientation of the HTS," Schindler told the Münchner Merkur. Beijing's UN envoy Fu Cong told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that China was "extremely concerned" about reports that members of the TIP had been given high-ranking positions within the Syrian army. "We call on Syria to fulfill its obligations to combat terrorism and prevent terrorist forces from using Syrian territory to threaten the security of other countries."”

“... The TIP is "still officially part of the global al-Qaida network and, unlike HTS, has never distanced itself from al-Qaida," explains terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler of the Counter Extremism Project. "The fact that HTS accepts the TIP in its coalition is one of the main arguments that call into question the ideological orientation of the HTS," Schindler told the Münchner Merkur. Beijing's UN envoy Fu Cong told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that China was "extremely concerned" about reports that members of the TIP had been given high-ranking positions within the Syrian army.”

"The Turkistanis comprise many Uighurs who have fled from China and the group is said to have been founded in Afghanistan, according to the Counter Extremism Project think tank. Playing a key role alongside HTS’s operations, the Turkistan Islamic Party regularly carried out suicide bombings during the civil war and in 2018 praised the 2001 Al Qaeda attack on the World Trade Centre in New York."

"Dr Hans-Jakob Schindler, Senior Director at the Counter Extremism Project, said: “To fully assess the emerging terrorism challenges emanating from the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of HTS, it is important to understand that from a global Islamist terrorist perspective, these events did not happen in a vacuum. “Islamist terrorist sympathizers think that their forces were able to drive American and international forces out of Afghanistan in 2021; expel the French, the United Nations, and American and European forces out of West Africa since 2022; and now defeat Russia and Iran in Syria.”"

 

CEP Senior Director Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler referenced: "Parts of the HTS alliance in Syria are clearly extremist and Islamist, even if their leader appears moderate, explains extremism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler.”"

"Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler, a diplomat with years of experience in Middle East affairs, former coordinator at the UN Security Council and now director of the Counter Extremism Project, a non-profit organization with offices in New York and Berlin, tells iMEdD that it will take time to prove that the shift away from Islamic extremism advocated by HTS is sincere. “The group’s history is really also the current leader’s history,” says Dr. Schindler, highlighting al-Jolani’s role in the creation and development of the organization.”"

"Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, told MailOnline that a best-case scenario could see HTS work with other factions to achieve stability.

'Will there be democracy? Probably not in the Western sense - but some kind of consultative system, possibly involving elections, could emerge,' he said.

'HTS seem clear that they want Islamic governance but also show awareness of minority rights. It is not clear that they will fall into the Taliban trap of ignoring domestic and international opinion, women's rights and other key issues.'"

CEP Senior Director Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler interviewed: "FBI Director explains his decision to resign. Dr. Hans Jakob Schindler details how Hayat Tahrir al Sham overthrew Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria overthrown so fast."