There is discussion of U.S. ground operations in Iran, but the risk of American casualties is high. “This is a high-risk strategy that requires careful consideration,” says [CEP Senior Director] Hans-Jakob Schindler, a Middle East expert, on WELT TV.

The Revolutionary Guards are the Iranian regime’s defense force against external and internal threats. This elite force, which numbers up to 200,000 members, comprises ground forces, an air force, and a navy. It is responsible for the missile and drone programs. In addition, it is responsible for security in the Strait of Hormuz. This includes the decision to close the strait or launch attacks on Gulf states. “In times of war, the Guard is the central power in Iran,” Hans-Jakob Schindler, head of the Berlin-based think tank Counter Extremism Project, told our editorial team.

“The estimates of how many fighters terror groups, such as ISIS, have are always a complex endeavor,” senior director of the Counter Extremism Project, Hans-Jakob Schindler, tells the New York Sun. “One of the key challenges is what is classified as a ‘fighter’. Some governments only estimate the number of individuals that are armed and involved in actual fighting or attacks, while other governments also count all the supporters, including, for example, families.”

Joshua Fisher-Birch, a researcher at the Counter Extremism Project, said extremist propagandists operate similarly to content creators in many ways: they try to score as many followers as possible and keep them engaged. “This is all part of the attention economy,” he said. Extremist groups aim to spread their propaganda on large social media sites with lots of eyes on them, like TikTok and Instagram, Fisher-Birch said, or on gaming platforms that are popular with younger people. Telegram and other messaging apps are sometimes used for private chats and one-on-one communication, he said.

At 23:14, CEP Senior Director Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler discusses recent attacks against the Iranian nuclear program.

CEP Senior Director Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler speaks about Russian low-level agents in Germany. 

"When the operation is over or someone is arrested, he is literally thrown away as a consumable," says terrorism and security expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the international organization Counter Extremism Project.

Security expert Hans-Jakob Schindler of the Counter Extremism Project emphasizes that Germany played a crucial role in the negotiations with Iran starting in 2003. Six different German foreign ministers held office until the official end of the JCPOA in 2025. "Certainly, Germany could have reacted differently at various points," says Schindler, "but then it would still have needed the approval of the other negotiating partners. Focusing this solely on Frank-Walter Steinmeier doesn't do justice to the complexity of the situation."

Schindler is a senior director at the Counter Extremism Project (CEP), a think tank based in Berlin and New York. He advises the Ministry of the Interior on the fight against Islamism. Regarding the maritime component of the shadow army, he says: “From coastal artillery to speedboats, they're all part of the Revolutionary Guards...”

Iran has rejected claims by US President Donald Trump about talks between the two countries. "This could be the first sign of regime change," says Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler.